I believe that the stock market functions much like our weather system. There are warm and cold seasons. A warm season in the stock market implies bullish run while cold implies bearish run. Since entering 2011, I have witnessed 3 cold seasons in the stock market, 1) Jan - Mar: Libya War + Japanese Earthquake & Tsunami, 2) May - June: Euro Debt Crisis, and 3) August: US Debt Crisis
I wrote on a previous post that another golden opportunity might be on its way, should US fail to raise its debt ceiling. I was somehow wrong. In fact, if we look at current situations, the stock market takes a blow even with a higher debt ceiling. The reason is that although raising the debt ceiling can prevent US from declaring bankruptcy, it also implies more funds will be borrowed to run the country, and thus more debts will be incurred. Already US is a debt-plunged country, more debts will spell more troubles in the future. Not to mention Europe is also drowning itself in the sea of debts, coupled with China's slowing economic growth.
There is literally no strong powerhouse in this world to "support the collapsing sky", unlike the 2008 global economic recession where we had China the red-hot machine to rescue US and Europe.
But what does this mean for the stock market? With so many negative news appearing everyday, naturally investors' confidence will suffer and so are stock prices. My REITs are taking a hit too, but at a much minimal effect due to the lower-risk nature of REIT (the risk factor of REIT is a little above govt bonds but lower than high-growth stocks). Instead of panicking like a typical ignorant investor, I am overjoyed by the latest market bearish season thanks to US. That implies I can buy my favourite stocks at an even amazing price! The lower they get, the lower my average purchasing price, but the higher capital appreciation I will get when market bounces back in the next bullish run.
Now, I have a load of cash ammo in my firearms store, ready to fire at cheap stocks again in this newest golden opportunity.
No comments:
Post a Comment